Manifold Prize Drawing FAQ
What are Prize Drawings?
Manifold runs periodic prize drawings where you can win real money (paid in USDC) just by being an active predictor on the platform. No mana purchase necessary.
How do I enter?
The Prize Drawing is entirely opt-in. Active, eligible users with at least 1,000 mana invested can visit the Prize Drawing page to claim one free entry.
Additional entries are available on the prize drawing page by converting mana.
What are the requirements to enter?
- Age: You must be 18 or older
- Active predictor: You must have at least 1,000 mana invested across markets to enter. This ensures the prize drawing is for people actually using the platform, not just drive-by entries.
- One account per person: Only your main account can enter. If you have bot accounts or alts, send that mana to your main account — those other accounts can't enter separately.
- In an eligible location: See below for a list of restricted countries and locations.
- Not a Manifold employee: Employees, officers, directors of Manifold (and their immediate family members and household members) are not eligible.
Are Prize Drawings available to everyone?
We welcome everyone to participate in Prize Drawings, apart from the below locations which are restricted due to local laws:
US States:
- Delaware, Idaho, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New York, Washington, and Washington D.C.
Canada:
- Ontario
Countries:
- Australia, Belarus, Burundi, Central African Republic, Cuba, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Germany, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Myanmar, Netherlands, Nicaragua, North Korea, Russia, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe
If you're in one of these places, you can still use Manifold, but you won't be able to access or participate in Prize Drawings.
What do I win?
Prizes are paid in USDC (a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar). The specific prize amounts and number of winners vary — check manifold.markets/prize for current drawings.
What is USDC? Do I need a crypto wallet?
USDC (USD Coin) is a stablecoin — a cryptocurrency that's pegged 1:1 to the US dollar (1 USDC = $1). It's one of the most widely used stablecoins and is available on most major exchanges and wallets.
If you don't have a crypto wallet yet, you'll need one to receive your prize. Most wallets are free and take just a few minutes to set up. You'll need a wallet that supports receiving USDC. See those recommended in the mana purchase flow: MetaMask, Trust wallet, and others. You can also use a suitable exchange wallet to receive funds.
How are the winners picked?
Winners are selected through a provably fair process seeded by the Bitcoin blockchain. After the drawing closes, we take the first Bitcoin block mined after the close time and use its hash to deterministically select winners via SHA-256. For multi-prize drawings, each prize gets its own independent selection by combining the block hash with the prize rank.
No one — including Manifold — can predict or influence which block hash Bitcoin miners will produce, so the outcome is transparent and tamper-proof. We publish the block hash after selection so anyone can verify it on a block explorer like mempool.space or blockstream.info and replay the result.
Every eligible entry has an equal chance of winning. More entries = better odds, but it's still random.
Do all entries have the same chance of winning?
Yes. Every entry has exactly the same chance of being selected. Free entries and entries obtained by converting mana are identical. The method of entry does not affect the odds of any individual entry being selected.
Can the same person win multiple prizes?
No. In drawings with multiple prizes, each person can only win one of those prizes. If you're selected for a higher-ranked prize, your entries are removed from the pool before the next prize is drawn. This gives more people a chance to win.
What is mana?
Mana is Manifold's play-money currency. You earn it by making predictions on markets, receiving bonuses, and participating on the platform. Mana has no cash value on its own, but you can spend it to get entries into prize drawings. Learn more at manifold.markets/about.
How does entry conversion work?
The mana-to-entry conversion follows a bonding curve — earlier entries require less mana and later entries require more. This keeps things fair and prevents any single person from cheaply accumulating a large share of entries at the last minute.
The initial rate is very low (a fraction of a mana per entry) and increases gradually as more entries are claimed. The curve scales with the total prize pool, so larger drawings have more room before the rate rises significantly.
You can see the current conversion rate and how many entries you'll get for your mana on the prize page before you commit.
How do I get my prize?
- We'll notify you from within the Manifold site if you win
- You have 5 days to reply with your crypto wallet address that can receive USDC
- We send you the USDC
Do I have to pay taxes?
Yes, in many locations, prizes are treated as taxable income. We are unable to offer tax advice, so check your local laws and contact a tax professional if you have questions.
Can I enter with multiple accounts?
No. One account per person, period.
If you have alt accounts or bot accounts, that's fine — but send the mana to your main account if you want it to count toward entries. Entering with multiple accounts will get you disqualified (and possibly banned).
What else can get me disqualified?
- Bonus harvesting or gaming the entry system
- Misresolving markets
- Using bots/scripts to enter
- Faking your location with a VPN
- Providing false information
- Generally being sketchy
We reserve the right to disqualify anyone for any reason. Don't try to game the system.
Will there always be Prize Drawings?
We intend to keep running Prize Drawings and will share as much information as we can about our plans for future drawings. That said, we can't make guarantees — we may need to pause, modify, or discontinue drawings at any time, including ones we've already announced.
Will Manifold admins ever ask for the private key to my crypto wallet?
Never. We will never ask for your private key, seed phrase, or recovery phrase. Anyone who does is a scammer — please report them to us immediately.
Is there a Manifold token?
No. Manifold has not issued any cryptocurrency token. If someone is promoting a "Manifold token" or asking you to buy/trade one, it's a scam.
What happens if a winner doesn't claim their prize?
If a winner doesn't provide a valid wallet address within the claim period, the prize is forfeited. Manifold may select an alternate winner or donate the amount to charity.
How often are drawings held?
There's no fixed schedule. We run drawings periodically and announce them in advance on the prize page. Check there for upcoming drawings and entry deadlines.
Can I see how many entries I have?
Yes. Visit the prize page during an active drawing to see your total entry count and how it compares to the overall pool.
Is there a maximum number of entries?
There's no hard cap on entries. However, the bonding curve means each additional entry costs more mana than the last, so there's a natural soft limit based on how much mana you're willing to spend.
Where are the full legal terms?
The complete Official Rules are at /prize-rules. This FAQ is just a summary — the Official Rules govern if there's any conflict.
More questions?
Email us at prizes@manifold.markets or ask in the Manifold Discord.